Strong Tropical Cyclones Intensify More Gradually through Interaction with Ocean Subsurface
ID:1039
Invited Oral Presentation
2027-01-13 13:30 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 3 - Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interactions: From Weather to Climate Scales
Abstract
Understanding changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity long-term trends is critical for enhancing societal resilience. Given their disproportionate impacts, shifts in strong TCs, which are defined here as Category 4 and above, are of particular concern. We examined long-term trends in the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of strong global TCs and found that their increasing trend is only 43% of the average across all TCs. This discrepancy points to a wind-dependent negative feedback mechanism that restricts the intensification of strong TCs. Stronger winds induce stronger mixing and a deeper mixed layer depth (MLD), entraining cold subsurface waters that constrain TC intensification. Our findings highlight the need to improve understanding of intense TC feedback mechanisms to enhance future intensity projections, which is critical for mitigating societal and environmental impacts.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
