The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Size
ID:1050 Oral Presentation

2027-01-13 15:50 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 3 - Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interactions: From Weather to Climate Scales

Abstract
Poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) activities may increase TC risks for higher-latitude coastal regions. Here we show that the mean latitude of lifetime maximum size (LMS) of TCs has increased significantly at a rate of 0.92° per decade over the globe, approximately 70% faster than the poleward migration rate of lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). The accelerated LMS migration is associated mostly with the increased frequency and duration of post-LMI expansion. TCs undergoing post-LMI expansion tend to occur in environments characterized by strong vertical wind shear, which generally suppresses TC intensification but permits size expansion. As LMI shifts poleward into higher-latitude regions with enhanced climatological wind shear, the likelihood of post-LMI expansion increases, contributing to a growing latitudinal separation between LMS and LMI. These results demonstrate that TC size and intensity exhibit distinct responses to the poleward migration of TC activity, with important implications for assessing future TC risks at higher latitudes.
 
Speaker
Jiacheng Hong Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

Author
Jiacheng Hong Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

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    • Apr 30

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    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

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    • Sep 15

      2026

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    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027