The spatial disconnect between continuous ecological processes and fragmented governance boundaries is a root cause of coastal ecosystem degradation. However, existing research predominantly treats this “spatial-governance mismatch” as a static structural problem, failing to explain how it evolves over time through social-ecological feedbacks.
Here, we propose a novel evolutionary dynamics framework to address this gap. Taking the Pearl River Basin-Estuary-Coastal continuum—a typical land-sea social-ecological system (LSSEC) spanning the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area—as a case study, we conceptualize mismatch intensity M(t) as a dynamic state variable. Its evolution is driven by the race between two key processes: ecological conduction velocity (λ), the speed at which land-based disturbances propagate downstream, and institutional response lag (τ), the time required for governance systems to detect and act upon ecological signals.
We hypothesize that the product of these two factors, λ·τ, determines the system’s evolutionary trajectory. When λ·τ exceeds a critical threshold, the system enters a self-reinforcing degradation pathway; when it falls below the threshold, institutional adaptation can catch up, steering the system toward a coordinated equilibrium.
To test this hypothesis, we will develop a coupled System Dynamics (SD) - Agent-Based Model (ABM) framework, calibrated with a 30-year time series of remote sensing, hydrological, and socio-economic data for the Pearl River region. The model will be used to (1) reconstruct the historical trajectory of M(t), (2) identify critical thresholds and early warning signals of regime shifts, and (3) simulate future scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of different institutional interventions.
Our preliminary analysis suggests that the institutional response lag in the Pearl River estuary is significantly longer than the ecological conduction velocity, placing the system in a high-risk zone for cascading degradation. This framework provides a quantifiable, dynamic basis for integrated land-sea governance, offering a scientific pathway to operationalize China's national land-sea coordination strategy.