The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Climate-driven habitat redistribution exposes a functional mismatch in marine protected areas
ID:111 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 17:30 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 1 - Coastal ecosystem by anthropogenic activities and climate changes

Abstract
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are central to global biodiversity policy, however, most MPAs were 19 designed around relatively fixed species distributions and historical habitat conditions. Accelerating 20 ocean warming, deoxygenation, and habitat redistribution now challenge this static model. Here, we 21 combined global climate diagnostics, long-term coastal observations, species-distribution modelling, 22 and MPA assessments to evaluate whether existing conservation systems remain aligned with 23 climate-sensitive habitats. We showed that coastal waters are global convergence zones where 24 accelerated warming, dense human populations, and high marine biodiversity overlap. In four sentinel 25 bays (the Baltic Sea, Chesapeake Bay, Greater Bay Area, and San Francisco Bay), we found that 26 substantial reductions in local nutrient loads and CO2 emissions coincided with continued ecological 27 deterioration, including a hypoxia expansion of 21% to 200% and fish biomass-index declines of 37% 28 to 80%. Structural equation modelling of the Greater Bay Area identified oxygen depletion as a major 29 pathway linking climate-driven environmental change to reduced fish richness. Species-distribution 30 models showed that core habitats for representative flagship species contracted by approximately 40% 31 to 65% between the years 2000 and 2020, and habitat centroids shifted away from existing protected-32 area coverage. Globally, we saw that MPA climate pressure exposure would intensify under SSP2-33 4.5, with high-pressure grid cells increasing from 5% to 15% by 2050 and low-pressure cells declining 34 from 50% to 7%. We translated these patterns into a climate-sensitive diagnostic framework based 35 on climate pressure exposure, core habitat overlap, and redistribution alignment, distinguishing 36 functionally mismatched, exposed-but-important, transition-zone, and climate-refugia MPAs. Our 37 findings indicated that 30×30 and the BBNJ Agreement must move beyond static area-based targets 38 towards climate-adaptive conservation.
Speaker
Ainikaer Aikepaer Xiamen University

Author
Ainikaer Aikepaer Xiamen University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027