The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

A Bayesian dynamic model informed by optical variability improves trend detection in ocean satellite chlorophyll
ID:1144 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 16:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 64 - Advancing Climate Data Records: Creation and Application of Long-term Ocean Color Products

Abstract
Detecting and quantifying long-term oceanic chlorophyll-a (Chla) trends while mitigating associated uncertainties in multi-sensor merged satellite ocean color products poses persistent challenges. These challenges are intensified by the relatively short length of satellite observational time series and regionally low signal-to-noise ratios. Bayesian hierarchical space-time models improve long-term Chla trend estimation by accounting for spatial and temporal dependence in ocean biogeochemical signals, but most existing implementations rely on static, fixed ocean boundaries. Such rigid ocean partitioning approaches cannot reflect evolving bio-optical conditions across the global ocean, introducing additional uncertainty into long-term trend estimates. Here, we develop a dynamic Bayesian space-time framework that incorporates time-varying optical classes to represent shifting ocean optical structure across space and time. We applied this framework to global merged satellite Chla records spanning 1997 to 2025 to assess and quantify long-term trends and constrain product uncertainties. Our framework improves model fit and effectively reduces uncertainty in trend estimates, with the largest improvements occurring in optically heterogeneous and transition regions. The estimated global trends show widespread Chla declines across oligotrophic open oceans and localized increases in coastal and high-latitude waters, with similar spatial patterns in two independent merged satellite products. Our results show that dynamic optical variability provides a stronger basis to quantify long-term ocean biogeochemical changes and constrain uncertainties when applying multi-decadal merged ocean color CDRs for climate and ecosystem assessment.
Speaker
Dongran Zhai Tsinghua University / University of California Santa Cruz

Author
Dongran Zhai Tsinghua University / University of California Santa Cruz

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027