The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Improved 21st-century Sea-Level Projections and Socioeconomic Risk Assessment in East Asia
ID:1212 Oral Presentation

2027-01-12 15:50 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 60 - Polar Ice Sheet-Shelf-Ocean Processes, Changes, and Sea Level Implications

Abstract
Future sea-level rise poses substantial risks to the densely populated and economically critical coastlines of East Asia, yet coastal projections from global climate models (GCMs) remain uncertain because shallow-shelf ocean dynamics governing sterodynamic sea level (SDSL) are poorly resolved. Here we combine dynamically downscaled SDSL with other sea-level components to produce improved projections under SSP2-4.5. By 2100, regional-mean relative sea level across East Asia shelf regions rises by 61 (40–89) cm, with SDSL as the largest component (39%) and up to 18% higher than GCM-based estimates. Incorporating improved SDSL and local subsidence, we assess sea-level projections and socioeconomic risks for representative metropolitan centers. The 100-year extreme sea level rises by 23–69% by 2100, driving increases in inundated land area, exposed population and physical capital up to 58%, 238%, and 148%, respectively. These results highlight urgent coastal risks and provide a credible basis for adaptation planning across East Asia.
Speaker
Yi Jin CSIRO

Author
Yi Jin CSIRO

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027