The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Expansion of Antarctic surface melt through the 21st century
ID:1223 Oral Presentation

2027-01-12 14:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 60 - Polar Ice Sheet-Shelf-Ocean Processes, Changes, and Sea Level Implications

Abstract
Climate models show that Antarctic surface melt will increase through the current century. Surface melting changes ice sheet albedo, the availability of liquid water for endemic and invasive species, and may even accelerate ice shelf collapse and global sea level rise. Here we show, using 1 km downscaled projections of potential Antarctic surface melt, that the total area experiencing surface melt will expand by more than 10% by 2100 under a Shared Socio-economic Pathway 3-7.0 scenario, with increased potential melt totals likely to threaten the viability of ice shelves mostly in the West Antarctic Peninsula and Amundsen Sea Embayment, through an elevated risk of hydrofracture. By calculating the latitudinal rate of melt migration we also find that Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1-2.6 is the only emissions scenario under which the rate of future Antarctic surface melt expansion will stabilize at present levels.
Speaker
Yaowen Zheng Zhejiang University

Author
Yaowen Zheng Zhejiang University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027