Decadal Variability of Ocean Heat Content in the Subpolar North Atlantic from a 1/10 high-resolution coupled model
ID:1230
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 17:15 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 62 - Variability of the Atlantic Ocean: past, present and future
Abstract
The Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) plays a key role in global ocean heat content (OHC) due to its profound heat storage capacity. While the SPNA OHC is projected to undergo significant changes under global warming, how its decadal variability will respond and the underlying physical mechanisms remain poorly understood. This study is based on high-resolution Earth System Model simulations (CESM-HR), including the pre-industrial control experiments (PI-CTRL), historical experiments (Historical), and high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations (RCP8.5), and employs a heave–spice decomposition method to systematically investigate the characteristics and physical mechanisms of OHC decadal variability in this region. The results show that under the future high-emission scenario, the decadal variability of SPNA OHC is significantly weakened, with both Heave and Spice components exhibiting a basin-wide decline. Furthermore, variance decomposition reveals a clear regime shift in the SPNA, transitioning from a historical state of comparable Heave and Spice contributions to a high-emission state dominated by the Spice component. These findings highlight the modulation of internal OHC variabilities by external forcing, providing key physical insights to improve decadal predictability of North Atlantic climate variability.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
