Reduced AMOC Decadal Variability and Its Dependence on the Mean States
ID:1235
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 16:15 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 62 - Variability of the Atlantic Ocean: past, present and future
Abstract
While previous studies have suggested that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakens under greenhouse warming, large uncertainties remain regarding what drives the intermodel differences in the weakening of AMOC decadal variability and its associated physical mechanisms. Using simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models, we show that AMOC decadal variability substantially weakens from the historical period to the SSP245 scenario, mainly driven by greenhouse gas forcing. These changes in the decadal AMOC variability are largely attributable to the variations in mixed layer depth (MLD) across the subpolar basins and to the mean AMOC state. Across models, the magnitude of the reduction in AMOC decadal variance is strongly positively correlated with the AMOC strength. Models with a stronger mean-state AMOC preferentially form deep convection in the Labrador Sea, whereas those with a weaker mean-state AMOC exhibit deep convection closer to the Nordic Seas, highlighting the critical role of deep-convection location in controlling the future reduction of AMOC decadal variability. Our results highlight the necessity of an improved representation of AMOC mean state and deep convection position for reducing uncertainties in future AMOC projections and associated climate impacts.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
