The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Glimpse into the Mist: Evaluating Forage Fish Populations Using Data-Limited Framework
ID:1250 Oral Presentation

2027-01-13 09:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 80 - Sustainability of China’s Marine Fisheries: Integrating Catch Reconstruction and Stock Assessment

Abstract
Forage fish play a crucial role in marine ecosystems, serving as prey for larger predators and a foundational resource for global fisheries. Despite comprising roughly one-third of the global marine catch, their stock status remains inadequately reported due to widespread data scarcity. To briefly understand the tatus of these stocks, we applied the Catch Maximum Sustainable Yield (CMSY) approach to analyze FAO landing data. By combining historical catch time-series with population growth rate and carrying capacity, we simulated biomass dynamics to evaluate 851 stocks across 274 species, representing 99.9% of global forage fish landings from 2013 to 2022. The methodology revealed shifting exploitation trends, demonstrating that the number of landed species has more than doubled since the 1950s, indicating an increasing reliance on new species to sustain high-volume catches. Crucially, the assessment identified a widespread pattern of over-exploitation, with nearly one-third (292) of the evaluated stocks likely over-exploited or already collapsed. The Southeast Atlantic faces particularly acute threats, exhibiting up to a 71% collapse rate among its assessed stocks. Applying these stock status profile of forage fish to a shortfall impact model indicated that stricter fisheries management and climate impacts could reduce future forage fish catches by 4.5% to 19.4%, potentially causing an 8% to 35.2% decline in global fed aquaculture production. Ultimately, deploying data-limited methods like CMSY provides actionable scientific insights into stock vulnerabilities, emphasizing the critical need for globally coordinated fisheries management and alternative feed innovations.
Speaker
Liu Yue College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University

Author
Liu Yue College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

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    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027