The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

A Temporal Graph Neural Network for Water Level Prediction in the Yangtze Estuary
ID:1260 Oral Presentation

2027-01-14 09:30 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 57 - AI and Digital Twin-Driven Coastal Zone Monitoring, Prediction, and Governance

Abstract
Accurate water level forecasting is essential for coastal hazard mitigation, navigation safety, and estuarine management. However, the nonlinear interactions among astronomical tides, river discharge, meteorological forcing, and complex estuarine topography present significant challenges for reliable prediction. This study proposes a Temporal Graph Neural Network (TemporalGNN) for 24-hour water level forecasting in the Yangtze Estuary. The model operates directly on the unstructured FVCOM mesh and integrates multiple physical forcing variables, including wind fields, atmospheric pressure, upstream river discharge, open-boundary tidal elevation, and major tidal constituents. Temporal convolution, graph-based spatial learning, and recurrent temporal modeling are combined to capture the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of estuarine water levels. The model was trained and evaluated using a one-year high-resolution FVCOM dataset containing 28,111 computational nodes. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves a global root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 0.16 m with an overall R² of 0.9767 for 24-hour forecasts. During storm surge events, the model reproduces meteorologically induced water-level variations more accurately than conventional astronomical tide prediction. The proposed framework provides an efficient AI-based surrogate model for accurate and computationally efficient estuarine water level forecasting.
Speaker
Shi Xiucui Shanghai Maritime University

Author
Shi Xiucui Shanghai Maritime University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027