The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Rethinking phytoplankton ecological risk from marine heatwaves: Separating cumulative exposure, mean response, and response heterogeneity in China’s coastal seas
ID:1392 Oral Presentation

2027-01-12 11:10 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 41 - Abrupt change, tipping and early warning in climate and coastal system

Abstract
 Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly recognized as major climate hazards for coastal ecosystems, yet their ecological risks are often assessed using event frequency, thermal intensity, duration, or mean biological response alone. Such metrics may overlook how the spatiotemporal organization of MHWs structures phytoplankton responses across heterogeneous coastal environments. Here, a three-dimensional MHW event catalogue was constructed for China’s coastal seas during 2003–2020, and satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) anomalies were used to quantify event-scale phytoplankton responses. An event-level space–time footprint (STF), defined as the temporal integral of MHW-affected area, was introduced to represent cumulative thermal exposure. Results show that China-coastal MHWs exhibit strong regional and seasonal organization, with event frequency spatially decoupled from cumulative exposure. Although event-mean Chl-a anomalies were generally negative, STF did not systematically determine the direction or magnitude of mean phytoplankton response. Instead, larger STF events showed reduced across-event dispersion of event-mean Chl-a anomalies, while simultaneously exhibiting greater within-event Chl-a response heterogeneity. This scale-dependent contrast indicates that high-exposure MHWs may produce more constrained event-average responses but more spatially heterogeneous ecological perturbations within their footprints. Seasonal and regional analyses further reveal that Chl-a responses are strongly modulated by background hydrographic and ecological conditions. An exposure–heterogeneity typology and an integrated ecological-risk index reveal that ecological-risk intensity is spatially decoupled from MHW event frequency. The Yellow Sea shows the clearest integrated-risk signature, while the East China Sea shelf and Zhe-Min coast/Taiwan Strait represent distinct elevated-risk modes, and the northern South China Sea has the highest event frequency but mixed risk archetypes. These findings demonstrate that MHW ecological risk cannot be inferred from exposure, frequency, or mean Chl-a response alone. Separating cumulative exposure, response direction, and response variability provides a more event-scale and risk-informed framework for monitoring phytoplankton responses to MHWs in a warming coastal ocean. In this framework, across-event response uncertainty and within-event response heterogeneity represent distinct variability dimensions, with the latter serving as the basis for exposure–heterogeneity risk typology.
 
Speaker
Zhenxia Liu Nanjing Normal University

Author
Zhenxia Liu Nanjing Normal University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
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    • Apr 30

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    • Apr 30

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    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

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    • Sep 15

      2026

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    • Oct 15

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      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027