The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

The evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude asymmetry since the Last Glacial Maximum
ID:1510 Oral Presentation

2027-01-14 09:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 17 - Modern and past processes of ocean-atmosphere-climate interactions in the low-latitude Pacific and Indian Ocean

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude asymmetry—the preferential amplification of El Niño relative to La Niña—is a defining expression of tropical climate nonlinearity and a key determinant of global hydroclimate extremes. Yet its long-term evolution and stability under radically different climate states remain poorly constrained. Here we reconstruct ENSO amplitude asymmetry since the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) using a synthesis of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST), SST anomaly (SSTA) and thermocline temperature skewness derived from fossil corals, mollusk shells and individual foraminifera, combined with transient coupled climate simulations. We show that ENSO skewness increased progressively through the Holocene, driven primarily by amplification of El Niño relative to La Niña, consistent with orbitally forced shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. In contrast, millennial-scale perturbations during Heinrich Stadial 1, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas produced abrupt, non-monotonic skewness changes associated with reorganisations of ENSO spatial structure linked to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability. By establishing SST skewness as a robust paleoclimate diagnostic of ENSO nonlinearity, our findings provide a critical long-term perspective on its stability, revealing its sensitivity to mean-state changes and offering a framework to reduce uncertainty in future ENSO projections.

Speaker
Zhengyao Lu Xiamen University

Author
Zhengyao Lu Xiamen University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

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    • Apr 30

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    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

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    • Sep 15

      2026

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    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027