Tipping points and abrupt changes in marine ecosystems
ID:1538
Oral Presentation
2027-01-15 08:45 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 73 - Tipping points in marine ecosystems
Abstract
Tipping points and abrupt changes In the Marine Ecosystem (TIME) is a European Space Agency (ESA) funded project that focuses on eight tipping elements in the marine ecosystem: phytoplankton and primary production; phenology; plankton size structure; Noctiluca; coccolithophores; Antarctic phytoplankton; North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; and coral reefs. Region of interest for each of the tipping elements is selected according to prior, initial evidence of change. The work will exploit the almost three-decade-long global time series of satellite-based products generated through the Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) of ESA, and other relevant Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), such as Sea Surface Temperature. The work has a focus on satellite-derived data, but it will also make use of complementary in situ data. Theoretical models are also being used in this project, to investigate feedbacks, resilience, and fragility in the marine ecosystem. Long time series data are being analysed using multiple statistical tools to identify abrupt changes and approaching tipping points. Where changes are identified, the potential drivers of change will be investigated. The role of noise (variability) in the ecosystem in determining the threshold where rapid changes might occur, will be investigated. The challenges to be addressed include missing data in the satellite coverage, which is particularly acute in high latitudes.
[SS1]Elin: please check I haven't left out anyone from the team inadvertently. Mark will the presenter. We are asking for oral presentation.
Speaker
Author
Important Dates
-
Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
-
Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
-
Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
-
Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
-
Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
-
Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
-
Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
