The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

The Month-to-Year Precursory and Synchronous Inherent Connections Between Global Oceanic Modes and Extreme Precipitation Over China
ID:1626 Oral Presentation

2027-01-15 11:20 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 18 - Oceanography Meets Network Science, Complexity, and AI

Abstract
The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation (SEPP) in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices: consecutive wet days (CWDs), total precipitation amount (TPA), and daily precipitation intensity (DPI). The relationships between precursory and concurrent global oceanic modes and SEPP were identified via a generalized linear model (GLM). The influence of oceanic modes on the SEPP was finally investigated via numerical simulations. The results revealed that the climatological SEPP (>14 days) mainly appears across Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and South China coast. The first EOF mode for all three indices showed strong signals over the Yangtze River. Further analysis via the GLM suggested that the positive phases of the TNA in autumn, ENSO in winter, the IOB in spring, and the WNP in summer emerged as the most effective precursory factors of SEPP, which could serve as preceding signals for future predictions, contributing 30.2%, 36.4%, 38.0%, and 55.6%, respectively, to the GLM. Sensitive experiments revealed that SST forcing in all four seasons contributes to SEPP over China, whereas the winter and summer SST warming over the Pacific and Indian Ocean (IO) contributes the most. The hydrological cycle diagnostic suggested that water vapor advection predominantly originates from the western Pacific and IO in summer, driven by the strengthened subtropical high and Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The enhanced vertical water vapor transport is attributed to stronger upward motion across all four seasons. These findings are helpful for better understanding SEPP variabilities and their prediction under SST warming.
Speaker
Xiaoyu Liu Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Author
Xiaoyu Liu Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027