The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Early warning signals of critical transitions in nonlinear stochastic systems
ID:1628 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 16:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 18 - Oceanography Meets Network Science, Complexity, and AI

Abstract
Critical transitions are abrupt, highly destructive, and exceptionally difficult-to-predict systemic shifts that frequently lead to massive casualties and extensive property damage. Complex systems—ranging from ecological and biological to financial and climate systems—exhibit tipping points at which they can undergo drastic changes. Predicting these systemic tipping points remains a complex and pressing challenge for the contemporary scientific community. Generic early warning signals (EWS) derived from dynamical systems theory exhibit inconsistent performance when applied to real-world noisy data. Recent studies have demonstrated that deep learning classifiers trained on synthetic data can enhance predictive performance. However, to the best of our knowledge, neither approach leverages historical, system-specific data. To address this, we propose a machine learning framework based on surrogate data, wherein classifiers are trained on empirical data from historical transitions. Concurrently, we introduce spatiotemporal diffusion and relaxation time as predictive indicators, both of which serve as effective precursors to critical transitions. Compared to traditional metrics such as variance and autocorrelation, the relaxation time indicator consistently exhibits an increasing trend preceding both oscillatory and non-oscillatory bifurcations, thereby demonstrating broader applicability. Ultimately, our objective is to identify early warning signals prior to critical transitions, providing a scientific basis and robust reference for policymakers and managers in formulating disaster mitigation strategies and making informed decisions.
Speaker
Zhiqin Ma Kunming University of Science and Technology

Author
Zhiqin Ma Kunming University of Science and Technology

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027