The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Upper-Ocean Variability and Model Skill in the Bay of Bengal: Implications for Indian Ocean Dynamics Under Climate Stress
ID:1634 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 16:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events

Abstract

The Bay of Bengal is a strongly stratified and climate-sensitive region of the Indian Ocean, where monsoon forcing, intense river discharge, precipitation, tropical cyclones, and air–sea interactions regulate upper-ocean variability. Accurate representation of sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, mixed-layer depth, and sea surface height is therefore essential for understanding regional ocean dynamics and improving predictions of monsoon variability and climate-related extreme events. However, the ability of global ocean reanalyses products to reproduce these interconnected upper-ocean processes remains insufficiently evaluated over the Bay of Bengal.
This study assesses upper-ocean variability and model skill in three high-resolution global ocean reanalysis products—FIO-COM, GLORYS4, and BRAN—over the Bay of Bengal during 2013–2022. The evaluation uses multiple observational datasets, including OISST for sea surface temperature, EN4 for salinity and upper-ocean hydrography, and satellite altimetry for sea surface height. Model performance is quantified using bias, root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, correlation, seasonal cycles, annual variability, and spatial error distributions.
All three products reproduce the broad seasonal evolution of the Bay of Bengal upper ocean, but substantial differences occur in regions affected by freshwater input and strong stratification. FIO-COM provides the most consistent overall performance, particularly for sea surface salinity, with a domain-averaged RMSE of 0.48, compared with 0.56 for BRAN and 1.38 for GLORYS4. For mixed-layer depth, FIO-COM produces the lowest mean RMSE and mean absolute error, at 8.85 m and 6.45 m, respectively, whereas GLORYS4 shows the smallest mean bias. The largest discrepancies occur during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, when river discharge, precipitation, and shallow stratification exert strong control on upper-ocean structure. These results demonstrate that model skill in the Bay of Bengal is strongly dependent on the representation of freshwater forcing, vertical mixing, and stratification. The intercomparison provides a scientific basis for selecting suitable ocean products for regional modeling and highlights the importance of accurately resolving upper-ocean processes for understanding Indian Ocean dynamics under increasing climate stress.

keywords: Bay of Bengal; Indian Ocean; ocean reanalyses; freshwater forcing; upper-ocean stratification; mixed-layer depth; monsoon variability

Speaker
Tahrim Jannat Mowsumi Ocean University of China / First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

Author
Tahrim Jannat Mowsumi Ocean University of China / First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027