The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

The Critical Combined Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillations and Tropical Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Over Bay of Bengal During May
ID:1636 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 16:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events

Abstract
Tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in May can lead to severe meteorological hazards, underscoring the need to identify physical mechanisms with early‐warning potentials. This study quantifies over 90% of TCG events are influenced by northward‐propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), which transports enhanced low‐level vorticity, reduced vertical wind shear, mid‐level moisture and warm sea surface temperature from the equator to BoB. Most TCG events occur within 20 days after the equatorial intraseasonal convections, highlighting the latter as one early‐warning indicator. Diagnostics reveal the biweekly westward‐propagating equatorial Rossby (ER) waves help channel energy from the intraseasonal envelope into developing tropical disturbances for 86% cyclogenesis. These westward Rossby waves appear over Indochina‐South China Sea 5–10 days before TCG, also serving as a potential TCG indicator. By identifying the synergistic impact of ISOs and ER waves, this study offers scientific guidance for improving subseasonal prediction in this high‐risk region.
Speaker
Ze Meng Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Author
Ze Meng Shanghai Jiao Tong University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027