Projected acceleration of surface–subsurface marine heatwaves from a high resolution model
ID:175
Invited Oral Presentation
2027-01-12 15:20 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 34 - Marine Heatwaves: Drivers, Predictability, Compound Extremes, and Impacts
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodic warm SST events that severely affect marine ecosystems. How global warming impacts MHWs over Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs)—covering 22% of the ocean but 95% of fisheries—remains unclear due to model biases. Using a high‑resolution eddy‑resolving model, we found that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can intensify MHWs by suppressing ocean cooling. Applying a future threshold (warming above long‑term mean SST rise), we project that MHW intensity and annual days over most LMEs will remain higher than present. MHWs also occur subsurface; globally, subsurface MHWs increase due to rising mean temperatures and enhanced variability. Historically, maximum intensity is at ~100 m depth, but shifts surfaceward under warming. Removing the trend, subsurface increases exceed surface ones, especially in LMEs. Concurrent surface–subsurface events rise tenfold. Our study underscores heightened threats, as subsurface heatwaves reduce vertical refuge for marine organisms.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
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Mar 31
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
