The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Low Cross-product Agreement in Global Coastal Marine Heatwaves (1982–2023) and Implications for Trend Attribution
ID:200 Oral Presentation

2027-01-12 10:55 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 34 - Marine Heatwaves: Drivers, Predictability, Compound Extremes, and Impacts

Abstract
Coastal marine heatwaves (MHWs) derived from satellite and blended sea surface temperature (SST) products often disagree, but the magnitude and drivers of this uncertainty remain poorly quantified. Using four daily SST products from 1982 to 2023, we quantify agreement at 9,946 global coastal points using two inter-product intersection-over-union metrics, a daily-scale co-identification rate (γ₁ ) and an event-scale rate (γ₂ ) based on overlapping event intervals. We find low global agreement, with daily- and event-scale rates averaging 12.34 ± 7.84% and 16.33 ± 8.35%, respectively, and interquartile ranges of 6.34%–17.19% and 10.17%–21.55%. Both γ₁  and γ₂  increase systematically with event duration and annual cumulative intensity. MHW trends are generally consistent across products, whereas trend attribution ratios show substantial inter-product divergence. These results indicate comparatively consistent estimates of long-term change but highlight the need to explicitly report multi-product uncertainty in coastal attribution.
 
Speaker
Wenjin Sun Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Author
Wenjin Sun Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027