The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Impacts of MJO and mesoscale eddies on tropical marine heatwaves and their forecast
ID:210 Invited Oral Presentation

2027-01-12 13:30 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 34 - Marine Heatwaves: Drivers, Predictability, Compound Extremes, and Impacts

Abstract
Tropical oceans vitally regulate the global climate and nurture diverse marine ecosystems. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) – warm extremes in ocean temperatures – have been increasingly detected worldwide over recent decades, raising concerns about their potential intensification in tropical oceans with far-reaching consequences. Yet, changes in tropical MHWs remain highly uncertain across climate models. Our analysis of satellite observational data reveals a significant decline in the mean intensity of surface MHWs by 3-11% across tropical oceans since the 1980s. Utilizing ocean reanalysis data and climate model simulations with ~0.1° resolution, we demonstrate that this decline in tropical MHW intensity results primarily from decreased mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) variability (< ~1000 km), except in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominated eastern Pacific region. Heat budget analysis shows that advection by mesoscale eddies is a key driver of tropical MHWs. However, this vital process has weakened owing to declining SST gradients and reduced mesoscale eddy activity in tropical oceans. Our study highlights the pivotal role of mesoscale eddies in regulating MHW dynamics in a warming climate. This finding points to the promising potential for improved prediction of future changes in MHWs and their impacts on climate and biodiversity with refined model resolutions. 
Speaker
Yuanlong Li Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Author
Yuanlong Li Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027