Extratropical forcing of tropical subsurface oxygenation under future warming
ID:273
Oral Presentation
2027-01-12 11:10 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 4 - Ocean Biogeochemistry Across Timescales: Past, Present, Future
Abstract
The global ocean overall is losing oxygen under climate warming, yet most climate models project increasing subsurface (100–1,000 m) oxygen concentrations in the tropical "shadow zones" — poorly ventilated low-latitude regions of the Indian, eastern Atlantic, and eastern Pacific Oceans. Previous studies have attributed this projected oxygen increase partly to improved ventilation in the tropical subsurface, often explained by enhanced tropical stratification that suppresses upwelling. However, such local stratification changes cannot readily account for the basin-scale reduction in tropical upwelling projected under climate warming. Here we show that the improved tropical subsurface ventilation arises primarily from remote extratropical forcing. Using climate model simulations and a suite of process-based ocean experiments, we demonstrate that extratropical warming and freshening weaken subtropical water mass formation and induce cross-hemispheric overturning adjustments that deepen isopycnal surfaces across ocean basins. This adiabatic deepening displaces well-ventilated, oxygen-rich shallow waters to greater depths, thereby improving ventilation and oxygenation of low-latitude subsurface waters. These results provide a dynamical explanation for the projected oxygenation response in tropical shadow zones and highlight the central role of ocean circulation and extratropical processes in shaping future ocean oxygen distributions.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
