The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport
ID:402
Oral Presentation
2027-01-14 13:30 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 5 - Arctic Ocean: Physical Processes and their Effects on Climate and the Ecosystem
Abstract
The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate have been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios is developed that simulates the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g., Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g., Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
