The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Memory Under Climate Warming
ID:410 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 17:00 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 5 - Arctic Ocean: Physical Processes and their Effects on Climate and the Ecosystem

Abstract
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, yet how climate warming alters the memory and recovery characteristics of the sea-ice system remains poorly understood. Here, we combine observational products and climate-model simulations to quantify changes in the effective memory timescale of Arctic sea-ice thickness. Observations reveal pronounced spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in sea-ice thickness memory, but also a coherent long-term decline across most Arctic regions and calendar months. Over the past four decades, the effective memory timescale has decreased by nearly 50% in many months, indicating that thickness anomalies persist for substantially shorter periods than in the past. Climate-model simulations under continued warming also show a progressive reduction in sea-ice thickness memory, indicating that the observed decline is consistent with the expected response of the Arctic sea-ice system to a warmer climate. This widespread loss of persistence may signal a weakening of the stabilizing processes underpinning Arctic sea-ice resilience, potentially increasing the system’s susceptibility to rapid state changes under continued warming. These findings highlight the importance of resolving the seasonal and regional structure of sea-ice memory when assessing Arctic sea-ice stability, resilience, and proximity to critical transitions.
Speaker
Jiahao Guo Ocean University of China

Author
Jiahao Guo Ocean University of China

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027