Accelerated North Central Pacific warming due to an asymmetric response of ENSO impact to greenhouse warming
ID:422
Invited Oral Presentation
2027-01-13 15:20 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate
Abstract
The North central Pacific (NCP) has experienced persistent and intensified surface warming, recording the fastest warming rate among the global oceans in the recent decade. The intensified warming unexpectedly persisted through the 2023-2024 strong El Niño. The cause for the persistent and accelerated NCP warming is unknown. During El Nino, an anomalously deepened Aleutian Low generally leads to cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the NCP, and vice-versa during La Nina. Here we show that under greenhouse warming, the ENSO impact undergoes an asymmetric change that contributes to an accelerated NCP warming. Under greenhouse warming, teleconnection of El Nino features an eastward-shifted Pacific North America pattern, which weakens the effect of an anomalous NCP cooling, whereas the impact of the anomalous warming during La Nina intensifies. We show that the asymmetric response of ENSO impact drives more frequent prolonged marine heatwave event in the NCP. Thus, accelerated warming of the NCP as seen during 2017-2024 are likely to occur more often or to continue, with severe impacts on local marine ecosystems.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
