The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

An eastward-propagating coupled mode amplifying the early growth of extreme El Niño events
ID:425 Oral Presentation

2027-01-13 16:20 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate

Abstract
Extreme El Niño events are among the most consequential climate phenomena, yet their early prediction remains challenging. Here, by analyzing the 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 events together with a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we identify a slow, eastward-propagating coupled mode in the western-central equatorial Pacific that plays a critical role in the onset of such events. This mode features warm sea surface temperature anomalies coupled with sustained westerly wind anomalies during boreal winter-spring. These westerly wind anomalies drive the equatorward transport of warm water, rapidly increasing equatorial ocean heat content and priming extreme El Niño growth in the following summer and fall. This mode is also observed in early 2026, preconditioning the development of this on-going El Niño event. Ensemble hindcasts further reveal that East Asian cold surges and the North Pacific Oscillation can stochastically excite this equatorial mode, enabling skillful forecasts of extreme events as early as February and helping to overcome the spring predictability barrier. 
 
Speaker
Yu Liang The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

Author
Yu Liang The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027