Intermodel Spread in Future Equatorial Pacific Climate Linked to Southern Ocean Salinity
ID:427
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 20:15 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate
Abstract
Abstract: Projections of the equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and Walker circulation exhibit substantial intermodel uncertainty. Through analyses of a suite of 54 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, we show that this uncertainty is closely linked to Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface salinity (SSS). Models with a saltier SO surface waters feature a denser and less stratified upper ocean, allowing greenhouse-warming-induced heat uptake to penetrate more deeply and thereby suppressing local surface warming. Through previously identified SO–southeastern Pacific (SEP) teleconnection, this reduced SO warming mitigates the weakening of both the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient and Walker Circulation. A CESM2-based salinity nudging experiment further supports this proposed physical mechanism. Combining this intermodel relationship with observed SO SSS, we develop an emergent constraint showing that the widespread fresh bias in simulated SO salinity contributes to overestimates of the future weakening of equatorial Pacific SST gradients and atmospheric circulation. These results highlight SO salinity as a critical source of uncertainty in tropical Pacific projections and suggest that reducing SO salinity biases could improve simulations of future Pacific air–sea interactions.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
