The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Intermodel Spread in Future Equatorial Pacific Climate Linked to Southern Ocean Salinity
ID:427 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 20:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate

Abstract
Abstract: Projections of the equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and Walker circulation exhibit substantial intermodel uncertainty. Through analyses of a suite of 54 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, we show that this uncertainty is closely linked to Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface salinity (SSS). Models with a saltier SO surface waters feature a denser and less stratified upper ocean, allowing greenhouse-warming-induced heat uptake to penetrate more deeply and thereby suppressing local surface warming. Through previously identified SO–southeastern Pacific (SEP) teleconnection, this reduced SO warming mitigates the weakening of both the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient and Walker Circulation. A CESM2-based salinity nudging experiment further supports this proposed physical mechanism. Combining this intermodel relationship with observed SO SSS, we develop an emergent constraint showing that the widespread fresh bias in simulated SO salinity contributes to overestimates of the future weakening of equatorial Pacific SST gradients and atmospheric circulation. These results highlight SO salinity as a critical source of uncertainty in tropical Pacific projections and suggest that reducing SO salinity biases could improve simulations of future Pacific air–sea interactions.
Speaker
Congcong Yang Peking University; School of Physics;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Author
Congcong Yang Peking University; School of Physics;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027