Projected future changes of Ningaloo Niño under global warming
ID:445
Oral Presentation
2027-01-13 09:45 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate
Abstract
Ningaloo Niño is an important climate mode in the Southeast Indian Ocean with far reaching impacts on the climate and marine environment, but how Ningaloo Niño will change under global warming remains unclear. This study investigates the response of Ningaloo Niño to global warming using the CESM large ensemble projections and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations. We find that Ningaloo Niño will have a stronger magnitude in the second half of the 21st century under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario, with nearly 60% of models showing a one-month delay in its broadened seasonal peak. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the meridional advective feedback is the dominant driver for the Ningaloo Niño changes, with additional contributions from changes in latent heat flux forcing. The strengthening of the Leeuwin Current during the Ningaloo Niño events, and the decrease in latent heat loss are closely associated with enhanced coastal Bjerknes feedback, with possible contributions from the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Furthermore, given the amplification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the increase of specific humidity saturation under global warming, ENSO-related remote influences on the enhancement of Ningaloo Niño activity need further investigation.
Speaker
Author
Important Dates
-
Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
-
Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
-
Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
-
Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
-
Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
-
Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
-
Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
