The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Projected future changes of Ningaloo Niño under global warming
ID:445 Oral Presentation

2027-01-13 09:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate

Abstract
Ningaloo Niño is an important climate mode in the Southeast Indian Ocean with far reaching impacts on the climate and marine environment, but how Ningaloo Niño will change under global warming remains unclear. This study investigates the response of Ningaloo Niño to global warming using the CESM large ensemble projections and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations. We find that Ningaloo Niño will have a stronger magnitude in the second half of the 21st century under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario, with nearly 60% of models showing a one-month delay in its broadened seasonal peak. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the meridional advective feedback is the dominant driver for the Ningaloo Niño changes, with additional contributions from changes in latent heat flux forcing. The strengthening of the Leeuwin Current during the Ningaloo Niño events, and the decrease in latent heat loss are closely associated with enhanced coastal Bjerknes feedback, with possible contributions from the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Furthermore, given the amplification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the increase of specific humidity saturation under global warming, ENSO-related remote influences on the enhancement of Ningaloo Niño activity need further investigation.
Speaker
Yue Wu Hohai University

Author
Yue Wu Hohai University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027