The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Nonlinear Response of the Indonesian Throughflow to External Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Its Tipping Point
ID:446 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 17:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate

Abstract
The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) serves as the sole tropical interocean conduit in the global ocean circulation, playing a key role in the Earth's climate system. Climate models suggest that global warming will lead to a slowdown of the ITF, yet historical observations reveal a contrary trend. Based on CMIP6 simulation data, we find that the ITF's response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is nonlinear, characterized by an abrupt weakening after crossing the first tipping point and reaching a new equilibrium state with low ITF transport after a second tipping point. The weakening of the ITF can be explained by the response of its haline and thermal components to increasing CO₂ concentrations, which is closely linked to the nonlinear response of wind forcing and precipitation to external CO₂ forcing. The changes in the ITF between the two tipping points correspond to an "Exchange state," "Transition state," and "Isolate state" of the ocean system comprising the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which in turn correspond to potentially significant differences in the Indo-Pacific oceanic and climatic patterns. Notably, the current atmospheric CO₂ concentration has already reached the first tipping point, and although uncertainties exist in numerical simulations, this suggests that a rapid decline of the ITF and a state shift in the Indo-Pacific maritime region are likely imminent. These findings hold significant implications for understanding climate tipping elements and global ocean circulation under global warming.
Speaker
Shijian Hu Hohai University

Author
Shijian Hu Hohai University

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027