Nonlinear Response of the Indonesian Throughflow to External Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Its Tipping Point
ID:446
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 17:45 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 50 - Indo-Pacific Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Climate
Abstract
The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) serves as the sole tropical interocean conduit in the global ocean circulation, playing a key role in the Earth's climate system. Climate models suggest that global warming will lead to a slowdown of the ITF, yet historical observations reveal a contrary trend. Based on CMIP6 simulation data, we find that the ITF's response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is nonlinear, characterized by an abrupt weakening after crossing the first tipping point and reaching a new equilibrium state with low ITF transport after a second tipping point. The weakening of the ITF can be explained by the response of its haline and thermal components to increasing CO₂ concentrations, which is closely linked to the nonlinear response of wind forcing and precipitation to external CO₂ forcing. The changes in the ITF between the two tipping points correspond to an "Exchange state," "Transition state," and "Isolate state" of the ocean system comprising the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which in turn correspond to potentially significant differences in the Indo-Pacific oceanic and climatic patterns. Notably, the current atmospheric CO₂ concentration has already reached the first tipping point, and although uncertainties exist in numerical simulations, this suggests that a rapid decline of the ITF and a state shift in the Indo-Pacific maritime region are likely imminent. These findings hold significant implications for understanding climate tipping elements and global ocean circulation under global warming.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
