Revisiting the Roles of the Australian Winter Monsoon and ENSO in Indian Ocean Tripole Variability
ID:675
Oral Presentation
2027-01-14 14:00 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events
Abstract
The Indian Ocean Tripole (IOT) is a key mode of Indo–Pacific climate variability, distinct from the Indian Ocean Dipole, whose driving mechanisms have changed in recent decades. We show that IOT events occurred nearly twice as often before 2000, reflecting a fundamental shift in their triggering processes. Prior to 2000, IOT variability was jointly triggered by the Australian winter monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). After 2000, ENSO forcing weakened substantially, and IOT variability became primarily controlled by the Australian winter monsoon. This transition arises from background SST warming near northern Australia, cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, and an increased frequency of late-developing Central-Pacific El Niño events. Warming near Australia enhances monsoon-induced convection and associated Gill-type atmospheric responses, whereas Pacific cooling suppresses ENSO-related convection and weakens the Walker circulation. These results demonstrate how mean-state shifts and ENSO diversity reshape Indo-Pacific air-sea coupling.
Speaker
Author
Important Dates
-
Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
-
Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
-
Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
-
Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
-
Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
-
Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
-
Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
