The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Sharp Increase in rapid intensification of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones over the past decade
ID:678 Oral Presentation

2027-01-14 14:15 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events

Abstract
The Arabian Sea has experienced a sharp increase in extremely severe tropical cyclones over the past decade, yet the drivers behind this trend remain unclear. Here we examined rapid intensification - a critical process enhancing tropical cyclone intensity - using multi-source observations and reanalysis  data. We find that both the frequency of rapid intensification events and number of tropical cyclones undergoing them have doubled since 2013,  accompanied by southwestward and northward expansion of rapid intensification-prone regions. Machine learning analysis identifies rising sea surface  temperatures and enhanced 850 hPa vorticity as key factors behind this surge. Future projections indicate further increases in these factors, suggesting  more frequent rapid intensification events and consequent heightened cyclone risks in this region. These findings highlight the critical role of large-scale  oceanic and atmospheric changes in shaping tropical cyclone behavior and emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation trategies.
Speaker
Xiaojing Li Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

Author
Xiaojing Li Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

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    • Apr 30

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    • Jun 30

      2026

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    • Aug 31

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    • Sep 15

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    • Jan 12–15

      2027

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