Positive Indian Ocean Dipole intensifies marine heatwaves in the tropical southeast Atlantic coastal region
ID:683
Oral Presentation
2027-01-14 15:50 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 42 - Indian Ocean Under Stress: Dynamics, Biogeochemistry, and Productivity Shifts During Extreme Events
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) along the tropical southeast Atlantic (TSEA) coast have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems and productivity. Through observational analysis and numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) can intensify TSEA coastal MHWs during austral summer through two distinct processes. First, pIOD induces westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Atlantic, causing thermocline deepening along the TSEA coast through oceanic Kelvin waves, favoring development of MHWs. Second, pIOD enhances rainfall over central Africa, increasing Congo River discharge and resulting in a shallower mixed layer in the TSEA coastal region, also promoting MHW formation. We further develop an empirical model using pIOD as the predictor for TSEA MHWs, demonstrating high predictive skill with a three-month lead time. In a warming climate, the remote influence of pIOD on TSEA MHWs may be further exacerbated, underscoring critical need to incorporate this factor into marine hazard forecasting for the region.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
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Mar 31
2026
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Apr 30
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Sep 15
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Oct 15
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
