Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions
ID:704
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 16:30 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 54 - Aerosol–Cloud–Radiation Interactions in the Ocean–Atmosphere System
Abstract
Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are fundamentally nonlinear, with their strongest climatic effects emerging where cloud properties are highly sensitive to aerosol changes—the aerosol-limited regime. Quantifying this regime's evolution is therefore critical for constraining uncertainties in climate forcing and future projections. By integrating satellite observations with climate model simulations, we map this regime globally and track its recent change. We find it expanded by 4.8% per decade over the past twenty years, primarily due to a sharp increase (~14.7% per decade) in the Northern Hemisphere driven by anthropogenic emission reductions. Under a strong emission reduction pathway, its frequency is projected to double or triple in key ocean regions. This systematic shift pushes marine clouds into a state of heightened aerosol sensitivity, thereby amplifying the cloud-mediated radiative response to aerosol changes. Our findings underscore the need to account for this evolving sensitivity in climate projections.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
