The Coral Triangle (CT) encompasses six Indo-Pacific nations and vast archipelagic seas. It is a global biodiversity hotspot, harboring the highest marine species diversity on Earth and providing essential ecosystem services. Climate change poses threats such as ocean warming and coral bleaching, highlighting the need for effective marine protected area networks.
Understanding coral larval dispersal is key to addressing these challenges. Coral larvae connect reef systems and facilitate the flow of thermal tolerance genes, enhancing resilience to rising sea temperatures. Identifying dispersal pathways and protecting key connectivity corridors can mitigate climate impacts and support reef recovery. Within the CT, the Indonesian seas act as a crucial conduit between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, characterized by complex currents and bathymetry. These seas experience significant seasonal and interannual flow variability, challenging the understanding of coral larval dispersal. Existing connectivity assessments often rely on single-season or climatological mean fields, lacking systematic characterization of larval migration under seasonal cycles and interannual anomalies like ENSO. This study investigates dispersal pathways at scales ranging from local reefs to regional colonies. Leveraging from the regional ocean hindcasts, we use the TRACMASS model to compare connectivity patterns across different seasons and years, providing the foundation for future assessment of thermal gene flow. Our model development is underway, and this poster focuses on the methodological framework and preliminary progresses.