Can trait-based insights improve fixed-type models? An intercomparison for climate and disturbance projections
ID:721
Poster Presentation
2027-01-15 17:45 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 10 - Advancing marine ecosystem modeling for a predictable and sustainable ocean
Abstract
Phytoplankton community structure strongly shapes marine primary productivity and carbon export. While ecosystem models traditionally simplify this complexity using a fixed set of functional types, this approach may fail to capture community shifts under abrupt disturbances or long-term climate changes, leading to biased predictions. Trait-based models offer a dynamic alternative but are often computationally prohibitive for high-resolution or global-scale applications. To evaluate the practical implications of this trade-off, we compare a trait-based model against a fixed functional type model (NPZD framework) under scenarios of episodic bloom events and climate change. Both one-dimensional physical-biogeochemical models, constrained by BGC-Argo observations, are configured for the strongly stratified tropical North Atlantic. We perturb environmental forcings to simulate disturbances and climate change, analyzing divergent responses between the models. Specifically, we assess: (1) how predictions of productivity and export differ under stress; (2) whether surface and deep phytoplankton communities exhibit contrasting responses to climate forcing in stratified regions; and (3) if temporally varying parameters, derived from the trait-based simulation, can be used to improve the fidelity of the simpler NPZD-type model. Our findings aim to identify critical limitations of fixed-community models and develop strategies to enhance their predictive power for a changing ocean.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
