The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Can trait-based insights improve fixed-type models? An intercomparison for climate and disturbance projections
ID:721 Poster Presentation

2027-01-15 17:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 10 - Advancing marine ecosystem modeling for a predictable and sustainable ocean

Abstract
Phytoplankton community structure strongly shapes marine primary productivity and carbon export. While ecosystem models traditionally simplify this complexity using a fixed set of functional types, this approach may fail to capture community shifts under abrupt disturbances or long-term climate changes, leading to biased predictions. Trait-based models offer a dynamic alternative but are often computationally prohibitive for high-resolution or global-scale applications. To evaluate the practical implications of this trade-off, we compare a trait-based model against a fixed functional type model (NPZD framework) under scenarios of episodic bloom events and climate change. Both one-dimensional physical-biogeochemical models, constrained by BGC-Argo observations, are configured for the strongly stratified tropical North Atlantic. We perturb environmental forcings to simulate disturbances and climate change, analyzing divergent responses between the models. Specifically, we assess: (1) how predictions of productivity and export differ under stress; (2) whether surface and deep phytoplankton communities exhibit contrasting responses to climate forcing in stratified regions; and (3) if temporally varying parameters, derived from the trait-based simulation, can be used to improve the fidelity of the simpler NPZD-type model. Our findings aim to identify critical limitations of fixed-community models and develop strategies to enhance their predictive power for a changing ocean.
 
Speaker
Zhuowei Xu The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou))

Author
Zhuowei Xu The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou))

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027