Decadal Climate Prediction with FGOALS-g3 Using DRP-4DVar Coupled Data Assimilation
ID:873
Oral Presentation
2027-01-15 08:45 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability
Abstract
A coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method has been developed for FGOALS-g3. The system assimilates monthly ocean temperature and salinity analyses using one-month assimilation windows, producing ocean states that are more consistent with observations and better capture major climate variability modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Using initial conditions generated by the CDA system, a suite of 10-year hindcasts is initialized annually from 1961 to 2013. High decadal prediction skills are achieved for global mean surface air temperature anomalies, PDO, AMO and East Asian summer monsoon. The skills are competitive with or superior to those of most CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of DRP-4DVar-based CDA in initializing FGOALS-g3 and improving decadal climate prediction.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
