The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Decadal Climate Prediction with FGOALS-g3 Using DRP-4DVar Coupled Data Assimilation
ID:873 Oral Presentation

2027-01-15 08:45 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability

Abstract
A coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method has been developed for FGOALS-g3. The system assimilates monthly ocean temperature and salinity analyses using one-month assimilation windows, producing ocean states that are more consistent with observations and better capture major climate variability modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Using initial conditions generated by the CDA system, a suite of 10-year hindcasts is initialized annually from 1961 to 2013. High decadal prediction skills are achieved for global mean surface air temperature anomalies, PDO, AMO and East Asian summer monsoon. The skills are competitive with or superior to those of most CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of DRP-4DVar-based CDA in initializing FGOALS-g3 and improving decadal climate prediction.
Speaker
Yujun He Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Author
Yujun He 中国科学院大气物理研究所

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027