The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Decadal Modulation of North Pacific Heat Storage: Regional Patterns and Emerging Signals
ID:875 Oral Presentation

2027-01-15 09:30 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability

Abstract

Anthropogenic heat storage in the ocean exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with important implications for regional climate and societal vulnerability. State-of-the-art climate models generally project a sustained accumulation of heat in the mid‑latitude North Pacific, contrasted by relatively weak storage in the tropical basin. However, observational estimates over the past several decades reveal a more intricate pattern, characterized by limited net warming in the central and eastern mid‑latitudes and a conspicuous warming tendency in the northwestern tropical Pacific. Using a combination of observational products, dedicated ocean model sensitivity experiments, and multi‑model climate simulations, we investigate the relative roles of externally forced trends and internal low‑frequency variability in shaping the historical and future heat storage evolution. Our analyses suggest that natural decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations in the large‑scale wind field have contributed substantially to the regional distribution of heat content changes over recent decades, leading to deviations from the canonical model‑projected pattern. The associated circulation adjustments appear to involve basin‑scale dynamical reorganizations, which modulate the timing and pattern of the forced signal. As a consequence, the unambiguous emergence of anthropogenic warming in the interior North Pacific is likely to be delayed until the latter part of this century. Nevertheless, some evidence points to an earlier detectable anthropogenic signature in the marginal seas fringing the North Pacific basin, where enhanced warming and attendant extremes (e.g., marine heatwaves) are already becoming apparent.

Speaker
Jing Duan Institute of Oceanology

Author
Jing Duan Institute of Oceanology

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027