Decadal Modulation of North Pacific Heat Storage: Regional Patterns and Emerging Signals
2027-01-15 09:30 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability
Abstract
Anthropogenic heat storage in the ocean exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with important implications for regional climate and societal vulnerability. State-of-the-art climate models generally project a sustained accumulation of heat in the mid‑latitude North Pacific, contrasted by relatively weak storage in the tropical basin. However, observational estimates over the past several decades reveal a more intricate pattern, characterized by limited net warming in the central and eastern mid‑latitudes and a conspicuous warming tendency in the northwestern tropical Pacific. Using a combination of observational products, dedicated ocean model sensitivity experiments, and multi‑model climate simulations, we investigate the relative roles of externally forced trends and internal low‑frequency variability in shaping the historical and future heat storage evolution. Our analyses suggest that natural decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations in the large‑scale wind field have contributed substantially to the regional distribution of heat content changes over recent decades, leading to deviations from the canonical model‑projected pattern. The associated circulation adjustments appear to involve basin‑scale dynamical reorganizations, which modulate the timing and pattern of the forced signal. As a consequence, the unambiguous emergence of anthropogenic warming in the interior North Pacific is likely to be delayed until the latter part of this century. Nevertheless, some evidence points to an earlier detectable anthropogenic signature in the marginal seas fringing the North Pacific basin, where enhanced warming and attendant extremes (e.g., marine heatwaves) are already becoming apparent.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
