The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability
ID:881 Oral Presentation

2027-01-15 10:35 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability

Abstract
The North Atlantic jet (NAJ), a fast-flowing westerly wind in the upper troposphere, influences the movement of extreme weather systems and affects the safety of commercial flights. In recent decades, the summer NAJ exhibited a substantial equatorward shift over the eastern Atlantic, contrasting with the poleward shift of zonal-mean jet. However, whether this equatorward shift is driven by external forcing or internal variability remains unclear. Here, we show that the recent equatorward shift of the summer NAJ was dominated by internal climate variability. Using simulations from state-of-the-art numerical models and reanalyses, we identify the recent decadal component of the North Atlantic warming hole in summer as the key factor. Through turbulent heat release, this distinctive pattern altered the local atmospheric thermal structure, causing the shift of the summer NAJ via thermal wind response and eddy feedback. However, this internal variability–dominated situation is not expected to persist. Our results indicate that as early as the 2050s, the latitudinal shift of the summer NAJ is projected to emerge beyond the range of internal climate variability.
 
Speaker
Chen Sheng Chinese Academy of Sciences;Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Author
Chen Sheng Chinese Academy of Sciences;Institute of Atmospheric Physics

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027