Deep learning model for enhancing decadal prediction of Eurasian surface air temperature
ID:890
Oral Presentation
2027-01-15 11:35 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability
Abstract
Decadal climate prediction offers critical scientific guidance for policymakers and supports socioeconomic sustainability. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art dynamical models remain limited in predicting the intricate multidecadal variability in Eurasian surface air temperature(SAT) at mid-to-high latitudes several years in advance. Here, we present a hybrid deep learning model–Gated Recurrent Unit augmented with batch normalization and attention mechanism (GRUBA)–that significantly enhances decadal prediction skill through advanced postprocessing of multi-model ensemble outputs. By incorporating K-means temporal clustering, GRUBA sequentially refines each SAT cluster accordingto its distinct decadal variability. During the test period of 2004–2021, the averaged anomaly correlation coefficient skill improves from –0.23 to 0.83, and the mean square skill score from –0.37 to 0.68 compared to the unweighted multi-model ensemble mean. This substantial improvement arises in part from the attention mechanism, which effectively reduces model spread. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis reveals that GRUBA assigns higher weights to better performing ensemble members.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
Session / Event proposals close
(Extended to April 7) -
Apr 30
2026
Session acceptance notifications
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Apr 30
2026
Abstract submissions & registration open
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Jun 30
2026
Abstract submissions close
(Extended to July 21) -
Aug 31
2026
Abstract acceptance notifications
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Sep 15
2026
Scientific program released
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Oct 15
2026
Early bird registration closes
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
