The Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

2027 Xiamen Symposium on Marine Environmental Sciences

January 12-15, 2027

Deep learning model for enhancing decadal prediction of Eurasian surface air temperature
ID:890 Oral Presentation

2027-01-15 11:35 (China Standard Time)

Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability

Abstract
Decadal climate prediction offers critical scientific guidance for policymakers and supports socioeconomic sustainability. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art dynamical models remain limited in predicting the intricate multidecadal variability in Eurasian surface air temperature(SAT) at mid-to-high latitudes several years in advance. Here, we present a hybrid deep learning model–Gated Recurrent Unit augmented with batch normalization and attention mechanism (GRUBA)–that significantly enhances decadal prediction skill through advanced postprocessing of multi-model ensemble outputs. By incorporating K-means temporal clustering, GRUBA sequentially refines each SAT cluster accordingto its distinct decadal variability. During the test period of 2004–2021, the averaged anomaly correlation coefficient skill improves from –0.23 to 0.83, and the mean square skill score from –0.37 to 0.68 compared to the unweighted multi-model ensemble mean. This substantial improvement arises in part from the attention mechanism, which effectively reduces model spread. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis reveals that GRUBA assigns higher weights to better performing ensemble members.
Speaker
Yuhao Chen Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Author
Yuhao Chen Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

    Important Dates

    • Jan 30

      2026

      Session / Event proposals open

    • Mar 31

      2026

      Session / Event proposals close
      (Extended to April 7)

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Session acceptance notifications

    • Apr 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions & registration open

    • Jun 30

      2026

      Abstract submissions close
      (Extended to July 21)

    • Aug 31

      2026

      Abstract acceptance notifications

    • Sep 15

      2026

      Scientific program released

    • Oct 15

      2026

      Early bird registration closes

    • Jan 12–15

      2027

      XMAS 2027