Multi-decadal Variability of North Pacific Bomb Cyclone Intensity During 1940–2025
ID:891
Oral Presentation
2027-01-15 11:20 (China Standard Time)
Session:Session 55 - Decadal Climate Variation, Prediction and Predictability
Abstract
Recent work has revealed a weakening of North Pacific bomb cyclones since the early 2000s, closely associated with the variability of the Aleutian Low. However, most existing analyses are limited to the satellite era, making it difficult to determine whether these changes represent an unprecedented shift or part of longer-term climate variability. In this study, we extend the historical record of North Pacific bomb cyclones to 1940 using the ERA5 reanalysis. Bomb cyclones are identified and tracked using an objective cyclone-tracking algorithm based on mean sea-level pressure. Multiple intensity metrics, including maximum near-surface wind speed, minimum sea-level pressure, and the deepening rate of cyclone center pressure, are examined. The extended record enables an assessment of interannual-to-multidecadal variability in bomb cyclone intensity over the past eight decades. Preliminary analyses suggest substantial multi-decadal modulation of bomb cyclone intensity. In addition, particular attention is given to the relationships between bomb cyclone characteristics and large-scale Pacific climate modes, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and Aleutian Low variability. These results help clarify the relative contributions of natural climate variability and long-term climate change to North Pacific bomb cyclone behavior.
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Important Dates
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Jan 30
2026
Session / Event proposals open
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Mar 31
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Apr 30
2026
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Jun 30
2026
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Aug 31
2026
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Sep 15
2026
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Oct 15
2026
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Jan 12–15
2027
XMAS 2027
